With the MCU market showing signs of stabilising at the midpoint of 2019, microcontroller sales are expected to pull out of the double-digit percentage slump in the next six months and end this year with a 5.8% decline to $16.5bn compared to the all-time high of $17.6bn in 2018 (Figure 1).
Worldwide MCU unit shipments are expected to drop 4% in 2019 to 26.9 billion from 28.1 billion in 2018, says the 200-page Mid-Year Update.
In 2020, the microcontroller market is expected to stage a modest rebound after the 2019 decline, growing 3.2% next year to about $17.1bn, while MCU shipments are projected to increase over 7% and set a new record-high level of 28.9 billion units (surpassing the current annual peak of 28.1 billion reached in 2018).
IC Insights’ Mid-Year Update forecast shows microcontroller sales rising by a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.9% in the 2018-2023 forecast, reaching $21.3bn in 2023. MCU unit shipments are projected to grow by a CAGR of 6.3% in the five year forecast period to 38.2 billion in 2023.
MCU unit shipments have been climbing by strong growth rates in most years recently – driven by the spread of automation and embedded control in systems, more sensors, and the rush to connect applications to the IoT – but increases in revenues have been muted by sharply lower ASPs, primarily because of intense competition in the 32-bit microcontroller category.
IC Insights believes significant ASP erosion in 32-bit MCUs has ended with the average selling price forecast to drop by a CAGR of -3.7% between 2018 and 2023 compared to a -16.1% CAGR nosedive in the 2013-2018 timeperiod.
Automotive microcontrollers sales are forecast to drop 5% in 2019 to $6.4bn after rising just 1.1% in 2018 when vehicle sales began slumping. In 2017, worldwide automotive MCU revenues grew 12% on the strength of car sales in the year as well as the spread of sensors in vehicles and increase in Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems (ADAS).
Automotive MCU sales are now projected to rise 1% in 2020 to nearly $6.5bn, followed by gradual strengthening in growth during the 2021-2023 period to reach $8.1bn in the final forecast year. Automotive applications continue to be the largest end-use market for MCUs, accounting for about 39% of total microcontroller sales in 2019. It is worth noting that IC Insights estimates that about 9% of automotive microcontroller sales are currently generated by MCUs involved in IoT connections in vehicles.
Report details: The 2019 McClean Report
Additional details on semiconductor and IC market trends are provided in the Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report – A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry. A subscription to The McClean Report includes free monthly updates from March through November (including a 200-page Mid-Year Update), and free access to subscriber-only webinars throughout the year.
An individual-user license to the 2019 edition of The McClean Report is priced at $4,990 and includes an Internet access password. A multi-user worldwide corporate license is available for $7,990.