Artificial Intelligence

Exploring the impact of generative AI

16th April 2024
Kristian McCann

Datacentre processor shipments for AI acceleration grew strongly in 2023, and this trend is expected to continue in 2024 and 2025. Yole Group expects the datacentre GPU market to grow to $162 billion in 2029, representing an almost 26% CAGR between 2023 and 2029.

 Among these datacentre GPUs, the flagship segment with GPUs such as Nvidia H100, B100, and AMD MI300, which are mainly used for generative AI training and inferences, is expected to grow. AI ASICs are also growing strongly to a $71 billion market in 2029, representing a 35% CAGR.

Yole Group has been investigating AI technologies and their interactions with the semiconductor industry for a while. Leveraging its significant expertise in semiconductor technologies and extensive understanding of the related ecosystem, the company has just unveiled its recent report, Generative AI: Impact on Processor, Memory, Advanced Packaging, and Substrates. This report examines the notable transformation occurring in the semiconductor landscape, propelled by the swift adoption and advancement of generative AI.

Emilie Jolivet, Director and Business Line Director of the More Moore activities at Yole Group, commented: “The decision to investigate the effect of AI in depth was triggered by the unprecedented investment from major hyperscalers in GPU and AI ASIC, which far exceeded our initial projections. This surge in investment was reflected in the remarkable revenue growth, with 2023 figures more than double those of 2022. At Yole Group, we anticipate a comparable growth rate for 2024, indicating a potential sustained trend that is likely to continue to reshape the industry.” The impact of this trend extends beyond the financial aspects, significantly influencing the semiconductor supply chain. The increased demand for advanced chipsets optimised for AI workloads is impacting the existing supply chain, leading to potential bottlenecks and shortages. Moreover, the shift towards AI-specific hardware is driving a need for new manufacturing processes and technologies, further challenging the industry.

The Generative AI report from Yole Group is a comprehensive analysis of generative AI’s impact on the semiconductor industry. This new report examines the AI processor market, including GPU and AI ASIC, and evaluates the HBM market in terms of bits evolution and revenue. Furthermore, it assesses the foundry market’s dynamics and trends and investigates the packaging market, focusing on interposer and HBM stack technologies. Yole Group also analysed the substrate market and its role in the supply chain. The Generative AI report delivers a global understanding of the ecosystem and key players with the major competitors at each level of the supply chain, the interactions and interdependencies within the ecosystem, and the key beneficiaries of the generative AI momentum.

Adrien Sanchez, Senior Technology & Market Analyst, Computing & Software at Yole Group, stated: “In the foundry market, TSMC dominates, with Samsung, Intel Foundry Services, and SMIC striving to carve out their share of this lucrative opportunity. These foundries cater to diverse clients and offer a range of technologies to meet the increasing demand for AI accelerators. Additionally, Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron are expanding their wafer capacity for HBM production to capitalise on opportunities in the AI market. While SK hynix currently leads the HBM market, competition is intensifying with Samsung’s involvement.” In the advanced packaging field, Intel, Samsung, and TSMC have emerged as prominent leaders, providing distinct 2.5D and 3D technologies for high-performance applications. These companies are at the forefront of innovation in the high-end packaging market. Despite challenges faced by IC substrate makers in recent times, the AI momentum is anticipated to have a positive long-term impact on the industry. This optimism stems from recent investments, capacity expansions, and advancements in glass core substrate technologies.

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