News & Analysis

Deployment of light duty automated vehicles globally to exceed 56 million by 2035

31st May 2023
Kristian McCann

A new report from Guidehouse Insights examines how the market for light duty AVs (LDAVs) will transform from 2023 to 2035, focusing specifically on vehicles with Level 4 (L4) automation (hands-off, eyes-off, brain-off) and up—those in which drivers can take their hands off the wheel and their eyes off the road in defined conditions and do not need to control the vehicle.

Automated vehicle (AV) technology is advancing rapidly and has the potential to transform the way people view cars, personally and commercially. According to a new report from Guidehouse Insights, deployment of L4 LDAVs is predicted to rise dramatically through 2035 on a global basis. Guidehouse Insights expects the number of L4 LDAVs deployed annually will grow from less than 30,000 in 2023 to 56.4 million in 2035, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 88.4%.

“The day when a person does not need to drive at all to own a car is still at least 10 years away and probably longer but a revolution in automation hardware and software is coming—and the next 10 years of AV development and deployment will likely see significant maturation of the technology,” says Sam Abuelsamid, Principal Research Analyst with Guidehouse Insights. “The market implications of this technology are vast, and there are many factors driving its development, as well as several that could hold it back.”

Several market conditions are promising for increased deployment of L4 LDAVs including the maturation of automated driving technology, consolidation of the most important players into fewer companies, permissive regulatory environment, and potential safety benefits. Most of the barriers to L4 LDAV rollout are tied to the fact that with such a young industry, there are many opportunities for its growth to be stunted, according to the report.

The report, Light Duty Automated Vehicles, examines the burgeoning market for L4 LDAVs and their penetration of the light duty vehicle (LDV) market, looking at the drivers of this emerging market as well as the barriers that could stop its growth. It predicts how the LDAV market will grow from 2023 through 2035 as well as the annual revenue automakers can expect from implementing the hardware needed for L4 autonomy. Guidehouse Insights also predicts what percentage of L4 LDAVs will be consumer vehicles versus commercial robotaxis or delivery vehicles.  

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