It could be as much as 15% to 20%. Right now Penn is settling for 10% making the market worth $451bn.
He expects Q1 to clock in at -1% before momentum builds to deliver Q2 growth of 3.5% and Q3 growth of 9.7%. The traditionally weaker Q4 will see a slippage of -1.3%.
“Boom almost always follows bust in the semiconductor market,” says Penn. “There have only been two instances of consecutive annual decline in the past 30 years.”
What Penn describes as a classic rebound would see the market soar 15% to $471bn.
The drivers will be across the applications board. Automotive will feature as the car consumes more and more electronics and top-end features find their way into lower-cost cars. Penn is less keen on an electric vehicle surge, citing hydrogen as a preferred long-term solution.
5G, medical and IoT will also provide an impetus.
Other beneficial circumstances are a halt to the fall in average selling prices and tight capacity following CAPEX cutbacks.