Analysis

Penn forecasts double digit semis growth in 2020

16th January 2020
Mick Elliott

Malcolm Penn is forecasting a 10% hike in the global semiconductor market rationalising an upturn is certain, it is just a matter of how much. As Penn , the CEO of Future Horizons reveals, “There is plenty of historic evidence that the market could show double-digit growth.”

It could be as much as 15% to 20%. Right now Penn is settling for 10% making the market worth $451bn.

He expects Q1 to clock in at -1% before momentum builds to deliver Q2 growth of 3.5% and Q3 growth of 9.7%. The traditionally weaker Q4 will see a slippage of -1.3%.

“Boom almost always follows bust in the semiconductor market,” says Penn. “There have only been two instances of consecutive annual decline in the past 30 years.”

What Penn describes as a classic rebound would see the market soar 15% to $471bn.

The drivers will be across the applications board. Automotive will feature as the car consumes more and more electronics and top-end features find their way into lower-cost cars. Penn is less keen on an electric vehicle surge, citing hydrogen as a preferred long-term solution.

5G, medical and IoT will also provide an impetus.

Other beneficial circumstances are a halt to the fall in average selling prices and tight capacity following CAPEX cutbacks.

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