If we look at the trend of human hiring and compare it to the speed of which Amazon is implementing robotics and automation, we can broadly assume that by 2030, robots will outnumber humans.
When did robots take off at Amazon?
Amazon’s workforce quickly grew until 2022, after which growth plateaued or slightly declined. During the COVID-19 pandemic, when people were ordering at home for wont of something better to do, and much of the world was locked down, it made sense to protect people as much as possible, so automation and robotics were a great way to fulfil customer satisfaction whilst keeping staff safe and costs down. Not only this, but the company was making money at a time when few other businesses were, other than food stores.
Then, between 2022-2024, the company saw fewer employees – this is partly due to a slowdown of e-commerce post-pandemic. And it is around the same time that Amazon increased its use of automation and robotics in its fulfilment centres.
Since the company started in 1994 it has taken just over 20 years to reach the number of employees it currently has – because, I imagine, supply and demand. However, amazon robotics and automation didn’t really kick off until the company acquired Kiva Systems in 2012. And in 13 years, robots are now almost outnumbering humans.
Big tech’s balancing act
According to Exploding Topics, if we look at the numbers, the rate of human employees at Amazon has markedly flattened out since 2022, whilst those same years for robotic deployment have been more aggressive. This means that if the trend continues at its current rate, robots could outnumber humans in less than five years. This does, however, come with a few caveats, for example: if Amazon expands it business or acquires new businesses, or AI-driven jobs become eliminated then humans will once more be on the rise; automation continues to mostly be concentrated on its fulfilment centres, while its more broad employment growth includes delivery, Cloud, and corporate roles; or it hires more people as it expands and retires old robots, all this means that the crossover point could change. But, if robot adoption accelerates exponentially, the crossover date could come sooner. And as Amazon’s CEO, Andy Jassy has already alluded to, some jobs may now be lost to AI.
The latter seems to be more factual, as not only is Amazon using robotics in its fulfilment centres, but it has also been testing robotics in its last mile delivery services.
Whilst, on the outset, Amazon isn’t replacing humans with robots yet – in fact, it’s training staff to become engineers, what it does seem to be doing is simply not hiring more people, or at least, hiring at a significantly reduced rate. A bit like when an employee ‘silently quits’, but this time it’s where the employer silently stops hiring.
I don’t know what the future holds for big tech companies like Amazon and Microsoft, but, for now, when it comes to business operations at least, the future seems to be AI and robotics first, people second. Unfortunately, other companies, like Klarna, have tested AI-first strategies – not always successfully and they learnt the hard way that just because you have the technology doesn’t always mean you should use it. It takes years to build up a brand, and not very long for that trust to be lost.
Amazon, I think, are being smart about their robotic deployment and I am interested to see what the future looks like for this big tech company.
