Semiconductor Intelligence Articles
Semiconductor market finishes 2019 on a high
Based on recent forecasts, the annual 2019 semiconductor market will decline about 12-15% from 2018, the biggest drop since a 32% decline in 2001, eighteen years ago. However, the momentum is trending up. According to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) the market began the year with a 14.7% plunge in 1Q 2019 from 4Q 2018. The market was up a slight 0.7% in 2Q 2019 and up a strong 8.2% in 3Q 2019. Most of the 2019 falloff was due to memor...
Impact of the continuing US China trade war
The trade dispute between the US and China continues to drag on. According to Reuters, US President Donald Trump recently threatened to raise tariffs further on Chinese imports if no deal is reached. Tariffs affecting most consumer electronics imports from China are scheduled to go into effect on December 15th, according to a timeline from China Briefing.
Semiconductors back to growth in 2020
The global semiconductor market is headed for the largest decline in 18 years. The market dropped 32% in 2001 when the Internet bubble burst. The 2019 decline should be around 15%, the third largest annual drop after 2001 and a 17% drop in 1985. The current weakness is largely due to excess memory capacity (DRAM and NAND flash) relative to demand.
The semiconductor market decline in 2019
The global semiconductor market grew 13.7% in 2018, according to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS). Each year, Semiconductor Intelligence review semiconductor forecasts and compare them to the final WSTS data. The company use projections which were publicly released from late 2017 through early 2018, prior to the release of January 2018 WSTS data in March 2018. These forecasts ranged from 5.9% from Mike Cowan to 21.3% from Future Horizo...
Trends from CES 2019 mark the start of a new era
CES 2019 was held this week in Las Vegas and had over 4,500 exhibiting companies and over 180,000 attendees. The Consumer Technology Association (CTA) has projected the overall US consumer technology market will hit $398bn in 2019, up four percent from 2018.
Slowing in 2019 for GDP and semiconductors
Growth in the global economy is expected to slow in 2019 from 2018. Ten economic forecasts released in the last two months show the percentage point change in World GDP from 2018 to 2019 ranging from minus 0.1 points to minus 0.4 points.
Electronics healthy but trade wars loom
Production of electronic equipment is healthy based on July and August data. China, the largest electronics producer, showed three-month-average change versus a year ago (3/12) of 13.8% in August. Growth for China has been in the 12% to 15% range since January 2017, picking up from the eight to 11% range in 2016.
Global semiconductor market could be up 12% in 2018
According to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS), the global semiconductor market grew 21.6% for the year 2017. The market was much stronger than anticipated at the beginning of year. Semiconductor Intelligence tracked publicly available forecasts to determine which was the most accurate. It used forecasts made in late 2016 and early 2017 prior to the availability of the January 2017 WSTS data in March 2017.
This year's semiconductor growth approaches 20%
The 2017 semiconductor market is shaping up as the strongest since 2010 - when the market grew 32% as it bounced back from the 2008-2009 downturn. According to World Semiconductor Trades Statistics (WSTS), the second quarter 2017 semiconductor market was up 5.8% from 1Q 2017 and up 23.7% from a year ago. Much of the market vitality is due to memory - specifically DRAM and NAND flash.
Electronics upturn boosting semiconductor market
In the last several months production of electronics has been accelerating, contributing to strong growth in the semiconductor market. China, the largest producer of electronics, has seen three-month-average change versus a year ago (3/12 change) accelerate from below ten percent for most of 2016 to 14.5% in April 2017. China’s April growth rate is the highest in over five years. United States electronics production 3/12 change has been ove...
Strong memory market drives 2017 semiconductor boom
According to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS), the semiconductor market was down 0.4% in first quarter 2017 from 4Q 2016 and up 18.1% from a year ago. The 0.4% decline in 1Q 2017 versus 4Q 2016 is strong compared to an average four percent decline from 4Q to 1Q over the previous five years. The relative strength in 1Q 2017 was driven by a strong memory market. The three largest memory companies - Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron Technology...
Semiconductor equipment market expected to grow in 2017
This year's SEMICON Southeast Asia was held on 25th to 27th April in Penang, Malaysia. Over 6,500 people attended the conference to learn about the latest trends and equipment in semiconductor manufacturing. Dr. Dan Tracy, Senior Director Industry Research and Statistics at SEMI, presented an optimistic outlook for the semiconductor equipment market in 2017. Semiconductor capital spending (cap ex) and semiconductor manufacturing eq...
Chinese companies made a big impression at CES 2017
CES 2017 wrapped up last week in Las Vegas. The show had over 175,000 attendees and over 3,800 exhibiting companies, according to the organiser, the Consumer Technology Association (CTA).
2016 semiconductor capex at its highest in 5 years
Global semiconductor capital expenditures (capex) are expected to return to the level of 2011 either this year or next. 2011 was the record year for capex as the industry returned to growth following the 2009-2010 recession.
Semiconductors negative in 2016, positive in 2017
Semiconductor companies posted a wide range of results in 2nd quarter 2016. Intel, Micron Technology, STMicroelectronics (ST) and Renesas Electronics all had declines in revenue in 2Q 2016 versus 1Q 2016. Samsung Semiconductor, Qualcomm and SK Hynix had double digit revenue growth. MediaTek posted the strongest growth, up 33% (in Taiwan dollars) driven by smartphones.
How will Brexit impact semiconductors?
On 23rd June the voters of the United Kingdom (UK) chose to leave the European Union (EU) by a margin of 51.9 to 48.1%. The withdrawal of the UK from the EU is known as Brexit (for Britain Exit). The immediate impact of the vote was a drop in global stock markets, with UK markets the hardest hit. UK prime minister David Cameron, a supporter of the UK staying in the EU, resigned. He was replaced by Theresa May, who also opposed Brexit but has vowe...
Semiconductors out of step with electronics
The global semiconductor market has been on a decline (three-month-average change versus a year ago) since July 2015 according to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS). Although numerous factors affect the semiconductor market (capacity and utilisation, prices, inventory levels) in the near term, the long term growth is driven by the growth rate in electronics. The chart below shows three month average change versus a year ago for electroni...
Is the semiconductor market heading for a decline?
The results of several recent forecasts of the semiconductor market has shown an indication towards negative growth. In October last year, Semiconductor Intelligence projected the market would grow 1.0% in 2015 despite several predictions of the market going negative. 2015 finished with a slight 0.2% decline.
Semiconductor capex slow in 2016
Analysis from consultancy firm Semiconductor Intelligence has shown that the outlook for semiconductor capital expenditures (capex) in 2016 is weak. Gartner’s January 2016 forecast called for a decline of 4.7%. IC Insights in February projected a 0.8% decline. The table below shows the Gartner forecast along with the capex forecasts from the top three spenders (Intel, Samsung and TSMC) which account for about half of total industry capex.
CES 2016 is all about the IoT
CES 2016 last week in Las Vegas was a huge success. Over 3800 exhibitors occupied over 2.47 million square feet. Attendances was over 170,000 including 50,000 from outside the U.S. CES was put on by the Consumer Technology Association (CTA, previously the Consumer Electronics Association). The name changes reflect the broadening of high technology consumer goods to include more than electronics - software, systems, advanced materials, etc.